China Shanghai Tankii Alloy Material Co.,Ltd Company News

Author: former deputy director of National Development and Reform Commission, Zhang Guobao, former director of the National Energy Board   Following the Shougang, Guangzhou Iron and Steel Plant, Hangzhou Iron and Steel Plant after the closure of the Jinan Iron and Steel Plant by 60 Spring and Autumn also curtain call. These are located in the capital and provincial cities of iron and steel enterprises have been the backbone of the provinces and cities and enterprises, for economic development has made a significant contribution.   Now that steel, many people will think of this is "to the production capacity," a key industry; is a traditional industry, or even a sunset industry; high energy consumption and high pollution emissions industry. But I still have to say that the steel industry is actually an evergreen industry in the industrial sector.   Iron and steel industry turning point: from the number of growth to structural adjustment of the type of development   Human society began to use iron instead of bronze more than 2,000 years ago, which greatly promoted the development of productive forces and became a milestone in human society from slavery society to feudal society. For more than 2,000 years, steel has been widely used in the field of production and living, so far enduring. Although the new materials continue to emerge, especially in the "plastic and steel" the most typical, but the steel as the most important industrial raw material status is still unable to shake.   I have an article in the article on the importance of food for human survival, for example, despite the ever-changing scientific and technological revolution, the new format, new industries after another, but the food is still the most important material for human survival, when people have to eat, The future will still be so. Similarly, iron and steel for the industry, like food for human beings, despite the Internet, artificial intelligence, bio-medicine and other new technologies, new industries after another, but the steel support the entire industry skeleton, especially for China, a wide range of industries, steel is Indispensable important industries, the future will be the case.   I do not mean that the steel industry does not need to adjust, transform, upgrade, on the contrary, China has become the world's number one steel production power, the annual output of more than 800 million tons, production capacity of more than 1.1 billion tons Followed by the second, third, fourth, and even the total production of steel producers, but also far more than the history of the world's steel development in Europe, the United States, the former Soviet Union, Japan and other countries have achieved the output The The quality of energy consumption, material consumption, emissions and product varieties of China's tonnage steel has reached or approached the world's advanced level, but the level of iron and steel enterprises is uneven. For many iron and steel enterprises, the characteristics of extensive operation are still obvious. And according to the law of economic development, we can not always maintain such a high yield, need to be adjusted in time to transform, to backward production capacity. Reduce production capacity, reduce energy consumption, material consumption, improve the quality of varieties, reduce emissions, take the road of development of fine steel in order to make the iron and steel industry sustained and healthy development.   If the main task of the iron and steel industry is to expand the scale of production in order to meet the demand for sustained growth of the national economy, then the main task of the steel industry in the future is to take the road of fine steel, not only in the new China since its establishment, especially since the reform and opening up Is to maintain the largest steel production power, but also to build the world's first steel power. In the next two decades, no matter how the rapid development of new industries, iron and steel industry will continue to be an important industry in China's national economy, but also China's participation in international competition, a dominant industry, is an important export industry.   Regardless of other countries how the industrial structure, the positioning of the steel industry is in line with China's national conditions and economic development laws.   An annual output of 800 million tons is the result of market demand stimulus rather than the result of government planning So, how should we evaluate China's steel industry through the development of the road? The steel industry was once an important symbol of whether a country was an industrial power. It is said that during the eight years of the war, Japan's average annual production of steel is 5 million tons, while China's annual output of steel is only 5,000 tons (not the Japanese occupation of the Northeast and Taiwan). Japan's steel production is China's 1000 times, coupled with Japan already have the aircraft, ship production capacity, the strength of the strength of the contrast has been very obvious.   New China was founded in 1949, China's steel production is only 158,000 tons. In 1950, the resumption of part of the production capacity of only 610,000 tons. Chairman Mao of the new China attaches great importance to the iron and steel industry, put forward the "steel as the key link" "Anshan Iron and Steel Constitution" and so on, launched a large iron and steel as an important content of the "Great Leap Forward", despite the lack of experience in economic development, Took the detours, causing losses, but as the Chinese leaders to achieve the dream of the dream of the strategy is very obvious. However, in 1958, the power of the country, really to the point of Zaguomaitie, did not really complete the annual output of 10.7 million tons of the target, to 1959 statistics, steel production reached more than 11 million tons, and most of the quality of substandard Of the small blast furnace products, including Zaguomai iron melting iron products.   I was over, then the scene vividly. "Great Leap Forward" after the adjustment to consolidate and improve, the provinces of small and medium steel plants are mostly adjusted after the foundation, including the Jinan Iron and Steel Plant is also in 1958, "Great Leap Forward" after the development of the enterprise, for our country Iron and steel industry development has laid a certain foundation. But the formation of such a large number of iron and steel enterprises located in the central capital city, now to large and medium cities caused great environmental pressure.   In most of the years, China's steel has been unable to meet the needs of development, are tight material, but also net imports of materials, especially high-end steel imports. I participated in the work after exposure to high-speed steel, die steel, bearing steel, automotive panels, oil pipes and so on to rely on imports. To the reform and opening up in 1978, steel production reached more than 3100 million tons. As the iron and steel market is tight supplies, the early private enterprises and self-employed many rely on steel fortune, such as Tianjin's Daegu Zhuang, Jiangsu Huaxi Village and so on. After the reform and opening up Baosteel construction on the iron and steel industry development milestone significance, so that China's iron and steel industry modernization on a higher level, after the construction and transformation of steel plant Baosteel advanced technology and equipment, greatly narrowing the gap with the international advanced level.   In 1996, China's steel production reached 100 million tons, entered the ranks of steel production power. 7 years later, in 2003 reached 200 million tons of production, becoming the world's largest steel producer. Since then, the output has increased and almost 100 million tons of production has been increased every two years. Iron and steel production is too loud, but in fact until 2014, steel production exceeded 800 million tons, the market did not appear obvious oversupply situation, the production of products are basically digested the market. This is because this period of China's sustained economic development, railways, highways and other infrastructure and real estate construction requires a lot of steel. On the other hand, if there is no rapid development of the steel industry, it is impossible to support the rapid development of China's economy. At the same time in 1994 as the price base, although there are 20 years of inflation, energy, raw materials, labor costs are substantially price increases, steel prices do not rise or fall, which is the result of technological progress and competition.   It can be said that steel production reached a record 800 million tons more is the result of market demand stimulus, rather than the results of government planning, in my memory, the government has never planned 800 million tons of steel production. A considerable part of the production capacity is not approved by the government of private enterprises.   Look at the 800 million tons of steel whereabouts, of which more than 100 million tons of exports, as mechanical and electrical equipment products and engineering contractor exports of steel also more than 80 million tons, the two together, about 200 million tons of steel exports. No steel industry support, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products and overseas project contracting can not reach today's scale. In fact, the steel industry from 2003 to 200 million tons, the rapid growth of production for several years, and the power industry is fully synchronized. Since 2002, the installed capacity of electricity is almost an annual increase of 100 million kilowatts of installed capacity. The rapid development of the steel industry is adapted to the market demand for this period. China's annual export of more than 100 million tons of steel also led to trade friction, the export should not be so much steel controversial. Some people think that steel is a high capacity product, there is pollution, should not be exported so much. But this is the decision of China's economic development stage, no energy and ore in Japan, South Korea is also a steel exporting country, for their economic take-off and employment has contributed. Iron and steel is now a dominant industry in China, in the future will also be an important export products for our industry to go out, especially the infrastructure to go out to provide the necessary raw materials. Layout of the coastal modernization of large steel base is entirely correct and necessary China's iron ore imports each year has more than 1 billion tons, external dependence reached 80%, then China should not import iron ore, the development of the steel industry should not? I think this is where steel is contributing to China's trade, taxation and employment. In the iron and steel layout, the construction of Zhanjiang, Caofeidian such a coastal modern large steel base is absolutely necessary to maintain China's steel competitiveness, so that the steel industry to the next step on the correct decision. At the same time, in the iron ore origin and the market near the rational layout of some steel plants is also planning must be considered. But must pay attention to the cost of logistics and environmental capacity to mineral production, must not blindly develop production.   The planning work of the steel industry has also played an important role in the development of the past few decades, including the planning and construction of the third-line construction and the construction of Baosteel are carried out under the national planning. I do not agree with some people say, let the market freedom to decide to develop, deny all the planning and industrial policy role. The correct planning and industrial policy and play a role in the market competition is equally important, this is the development of Chinese characteristics of the road, it is precisely our advantage. In the future adjustment of the steel industry, planning and industrial policy still have to play a good role, but the focus of work will be transferred to the merger and reorganization, energy saving, environmental protection, eliminate backward production capacity, go fine steel road, rather than the past Accustomed to the development of production capacity.   I think that only such a dialectical view of China's steel industry is in line with China's national conditions and reality. In the past, there were metallurgical departments, played a historic role in the construction of new China's steel industry, and now there is no metallurgy department, the steel industry has been more development, indicating that market-oriented industry has played a leading role in the development. The future of industrial planning is more guidance, to give full play to the industry association of advice, self-discipline, so that the iron and steel industry in the "three five" and the future longer period of development more healthy.   Editor: Song Yucheng Source: China Economic Weekly              

SHANGHAI, Dec 6 (SMM) – The spread between high-quality copper and hydro-copper, a kind of copper with more impurities, widened to the highest in close to two years on Tuesday December 4 as tight supplies bolstered high-quality copper premiums and a rush to cash in among sellers expanded hydro-copper discounts. From the middle of November, the Shanghai spot copper market has seen the price spreads between high-and lower quality materials widening, to a peak of 315 yuan/mt on Tuesday, SMM assessments showed. A closed import arbitrage window deterred importers from moving their high-quality cargoes to the domestic spot market while domestic smelters stepped up exports and reduced domestic spot supplies. SMM data showed that copper stocks in Shanghai-bonded areas rose by some 19,600 mt in the fortnight ended November 30, and stood at 408,600 mt. This, and as traders favoured high-quality materials when delivering long-term orders by the end of the year, pushed the premiums for high-quality copper to 400 yuan/mt as of Thursday, over the SHFE December contract, up from 110 yuan/mt in late November. Importers and downstream consumers preferred cheaper lower-quality copper, and this supported the supplies of hydro-copper across the spot markets. Discounts for hydro-copper were heard up to 120 yuan/mt against the SHFE December contract earlier this week as some sellers sharply lowered their offers in a bid to cash in their cargoes. Weak purchasing enthusiasm among downstream consumers also weighed on hydro-copper discounts, reflecting sluggish consumption across end-users.     Key Words: Market commentary Copper For editorial queries, please contact Eve Yeo at eve@smm.cn For more information on how to access our research reports, please email service.en@smm.cn   Original article link:   https://news.metal.com/newscontent/100859456/short-supplies-weak-consumption-widen-price-spreads-between-high-lower-quality-copper/

SHANGHAI, Apr 7 (SMM) – Nickel mining in Surigao del Norte province, the Philippines has yet to resume, SMM learned, even as a large local miner said Monday its two units in the region will resume ore shipments.   In Surigao del Norte, which holds the Philippines' biggest nickel mines, measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic are set to be ramped up after the first case was confirmed on Tuesday.   Nickel Asia Corp NIKL.PS, the Philippines' largest nickel ore miner and exporter, said on Monday its two units in Surigao del Norte province will resume ore shipments as the local government has allowed mining operations to resume, according to a Reuters report on the same day.   SMM learned from the agent of Nickel Asia that it is unlikely to be able to resume shipments before April 30. Mining operations in Surigao del Norte had been suspended from April 1 to prevent the coronavirus spreading.   The Philippines has extended a lockdown on Luzon island until the end of April, idling its economic engine and home to most of its population to counter the spread of coronavirus, the government said Tuesday. The quarantine that began in mid-March was set to end April 12.

Data Analysis 08:31AM Source:SMM SHANGHAI, Apr 14 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected in the day ahead. The US dollar was roughly flat on Monday amid thin trades with Europe out on holiday. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies, was little changed on the day and finished at 99.504. "The dollar rallied some overnight in holiday-thinned trade, though pulled back in light N.Y. trade on Monday. There was zero data on tap, and focus largely remained on virus developments," wrote analysts at Action Economics. The US dollar had given back some recent gains as the selling pressure against its key peers persisted over the last couple of weeks on eased market sentiment. However, the financial market remained cautious about the economic impact from the coronavirus as authorities imposed stricter measures to curb the spread of the virus. SHFE nonferrous metals closed mostly higher on Monday, with copper leading the gains with a rise of 1.5%. Tin rose 1.2%, zinc and lead climbed more than 0.9%, while aluminium dipped less than 0.1% and nickel fell 0.7%. The LME was closed Monday for the Easter Monday holiday, and trades will resume on Tuesday. Crude prices settled on a mixed note Monday, with global prices higher but US prices down as the weekend’s OPEC+ deal failed to soothe demand concerns. OPEC producers dominated by Saudi Arabia and allies led by Russia agreed on a deal on Sunday to cut production by nearly 10 million barrels per day from May. Analysts from Goldman Sachs and elsewhere said the OPEC+ move was “too little, too late” after weeks of a damaging price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. US stocks closed mixed on Monday as investors gear up for the start of earnings season this week.   The coronavirus pandemic is expected to show up in companies’ first-quarter report cards, even though the virus didn’t shut down the US economy until mid-March. Gold, viewed as a safe haven, hit its highest level since 2012, up 1.2% on the day, as investors weighed expectations for further moves by central banks and fiscal policymakers to boost the global economy.   Key economic data slated for release on Tuesday include China’s trade balance for March, the US import price index for March and its weekly crude oil change surveyed by the American Petroleum Institute (API).  

SHANGHAI, Apr 7 (SMM) – Shanghai base metals cruised higher across the board in early morning trade on Tuesday, after returning from the holiday-extended weekend, as investor sentiment was improved by China’s RRR and IOER cuts and an overnight surge on Wall Street. Their counterparts in London also traded broadly higher.   On the SHFE, zinc was 3% higher to lead the gains, while copper was the biggest gainer on the LME with a more than 2% jump.   The People's Bank of China said late Friday it was cutting the amount of cash that small and mid-sized banks must hold as reserves by 100 basis points in two equal steps, the first effective as of April 15 and the second as of May 15, releasing around 400 billion yuan ($56.38 billion) in liquidity to shore up the virus-hit economy. In addition, the interest rates on financial institutions' excess reserves with the central bank would be reduced to 0.35% from 0.72%, effective April 7.   US stocks surged on Monday, and Treasury yields climbed as investors grew more hopeful that the peak in coronavirus cases could be reached soon.   Oil prices dropped on Monday as the OPEC+ alliance of oil producers announced it was delaying a meeting at which it could agree to a production cut.   Overnight on the LME, base metals, except for aluminium, closed higher. Tin jumped 1.6% on the day to lead the gains, copper rose 1.3%, lead climbed 1.2%, zinc advanced 0.9% and nickel gained 0.7%. The SHFE kept its night trading session suspended.   Copper: Three-month LME copper strengthened to close at $4,904.5/mt on Monday. Stimulus measures, coupled with growing concerns about copper mine supply with major producing countries entering state of emergency, bolstered copper prices. LME copper is expected to trade between $4,970-5,030/mt today, with SHFE copper at 40,300-40,900 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 130-150 yuan/mt amid market turmoil.   Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium fell to its lowest since January 2016 at $1,459.5/mt in late European trading session, before it recovered some ground to close the day lower at $1,475/mt. LME aluminium is expected to move at $1,450-1,500/mt today, with the SHFE 2006 contract at 11,400-11,750 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at a discount of up to 10 yuan/mt to a premium of up to 10 yuan/mt.   Zinc: Three-month LME zinc rebounded in North American trading hours, reversing earlier losses to end the day higher at $1,898/mt. It was pressured by the middle Bollinger band but supported by the five- and 10-day moving averages. LME zinc is expected to move at $1,860-1,910/mt today, with the SHFE 2006 contract at 15,100-15,600 yuan/mt. Spot premiums for domestic 0# Shuangyan are seen slightly lower at 40-70 yuan/mt over the SHFE April contract.   Nickel: Three-month LME nickel fluctuated to close the day higher at $11,280/mt on Monday. Whether it could remain above $11,300/mt will come under scrutiny.   Lead: Three-month LME lead slipped to its lowest in more than a week at $1,639.5/mt in European trading hours, before it clawed back those losses to close the day higher at $1,680/mt.   Tin: Three-month LME tin climbed to end at an intraday high of $14,350/mt on Monday, snapping a three-day losing streak. Resistance is seen at the 20-day moving average at $14,600/mt.

SHANGHAI, Mar 30 (SMM) – London and Shanghai base metals cruised broadly lower in early morning trade on Monday, as investors continue to assess the economic impact of the global coronavirus pandemic that continues to spread rapidly.   Data compiled by Johns Hopkins University showed that the outbreak has already infected more than 720,000 worldwide and taken at least 33,925 lives. US President Donald Trump extended at a news conference Sunday the national social distancing guidelines to April 30.   Dismal economic data, which could shed some light on the fallout from the pandemic, released recently also dent investor sentiment.   With worsening pandemic furthering hurting demand and the Saudi Arabia-Russia price war showing no signs of abating, crude oil prices dropped in morning trade, extending last week’s losses, which also weighed on prices of base metals.   Trillions of dollars worth of stimulus efforts by governments and central banks, including a $2 trillion US package, to combat the economic impact from the coronavirus pandemic helped temper a rout in global markets last week. The Dow surged more than 12% to post its biggest weekly gain since 1938, while the US dollar staged its biggest weekly decline in four years.   On Friday, LME base metals, except for lead, closed higher. Tin surged more than 2% on the day to lead the gains, nickel jumped 1.8%, aluminium rose 0.8%, zinc advanced 0.5% and copper edged up 0.02%. Lead closed flat. The SHFE kept its night trading session suspended.   Closures of some mines in response to virus containment measures by governments also offered some support to prices of some metals.   Copper: Three-month LME copper recovered from earlier losses to end Friday trading a tad higher at $4,815/mt, to post a weekly gain of close to 2.5%. The contract tumbled 13.8% in the previous week, the biggest weekly decline in almost a decade. LME copper is expected to trade between $4,720-4,800/mt today, with SHFE copper at 38,300-38,900 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 50-100 yuan/mt as month-end financial settlement will dent purchasing enthusiasm.   Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium rallied on Friday, snapping a nine-day losing streak. It closed the day at $1,552.5/mt, and registered a weekly decline of 1.6%. LME aluminium is expected to move between $1,520-1,560/mt today, with the most-active SHFE 2005 contract trading at 11,270-11,950 yuan/mt. East China spot discounts are seen at 100-80 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2004 contract, as the 2004-2005 spread is likely to flip into backwardation.   Zinc: Three-month LME zinc hit a one-week high of $1,904/mt in early European trading hours, before it eased to hover around the daily moving average to end the day at $1,874/mt, marking the fourth straight day of gains. It jumped 1.6% on the week, after a drop of 6.9% in the previous week. Closures of zinc mines are likely to lend some support to zinc prices, but concerns about the destruction to demand will limit the upside room. LME zinc is expected to consolidate at lows in the short term and move at $1,850-1,900/mt today. The most-traded SHFE May contract is expected to trade at 14,800-15,300 yuan/mt. Spot premiums for domestic 0# Shuangyan are seen unchanged at 20-40 yuan/mt over the SHFE April contract.   Nickel: Three-month LME nickel saw its gains accelerate in North American trading hours, finishing the day sharply higher at $11,420/mt, its highest close in nearly two weeks. It gained 0.79% on the week, after shedding nearly 8% in the prior week. LME nickel remains between the five- and 10-day moving averages.   Lead: Three-month LME lead jumped to its highest in nearly two weeks at $1,734.5/mt in North American trading session, before it erased all those gains to close the day flat at $1,692/mt. It gained 3.5% on the week, after a 6.7% decline in the previous week.   Tin: Three-month LME tin resumed its rally, strengthening to end at $14,280/mt, its highest close in nearly two weeks. It rose 5.4% on the week, after collapsing 14.2% in the prior week, its biggest weekly loss in almost a decade. LME tin has stood above the 10-day moving average, while faces resistance at $14,500-14,600/mt.    

SHANGHAI, Apr 29 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected in the day ahead. The US dollar fell for the second day on Tuesday as investors put pressure on safe-haven currencies as they eyed the Federal Reserve’s meeting and rebalanced portfolios ahead of the end of the month. Month-end rebalancing is negative for the greenback, with the US dollar likely to be sold against the euro, sterling, the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar, according to Mark McCormick, global head of FX strategy at TD Securities in Toronto. “We wouldn't draw too many conclusions about the state of the currency market over the next few sessions given the mingling of policy and technical drivers,” he said. LME base metals, except for tin and aluminium, closed higher Tuesday, with zinc leading the gains and rising 1.31%. Copper advanced 0.43%, nickel added 0.78%, lead increased 0.4%, while tin slipped 0.32% and aluminium shed 0.2%. SHFE nonferrous metals, except for aluminium, weakened on Tuesday, erasing gains from the broad rally on Monday. US stock futures rose slightly in overnight trading on Tuesday, with all eyes on the Fed’s monetary policy decision Wednesday. Optimism that countries across the globe are getting closer to reopening their economies has cheered stocks Gold declined for the third consecutive day on Tuesday, as the prospect of a gradual reopening of economies directed investors’ attention away from safe-haven assets. Gold futures for June delivery fell 0.1% to $1,721.30/ounce as of 2:35 p.m. EST on the Comex, after falling to an intraday low of $1,704.10 earlier. Spot gold fell below the $1,700 mark for the first time in almost a week but has since recovered to $1,707.60. Gold for June delivery on Comex lost $1.60, or 0.09%, to settle at $1,722.20 following a low at $1.704.10/ounce. On the data front, the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated on Tuesday another large crude oil inventory build of 9.978 million barrels for the week ending April 24 as the demand collapse continues and storage space nears its upper limits. Official data showed that US wholesale inventories (preliminary reading) fell 1% on month in March, compared with an expected drop of 0.5%. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 86.9 in April, compared with the expected 87.9. Today, the US government will report first-quarter GDP growth. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.00%-0.25%. Other key economic data slated for release today include the US PCE price index for the first quarter, its existing home sales for March, the eurozone consumer confidence index for April and the weekly crude oil change surveyed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).  

SHANGHAI, Apr 20 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals opened on a mixed note on Monday morning, following a broad rally last Friday, with nickel extending increases by as much as more than 2% on Monday. China cut its benchmark lending rate as expected on Monday to reduce borrowing costs for companies and provide support for the coronavirus-hit economy, which shrank for the first time on record in Q1. LME base metals closed mostly higher last Friday with nickel leading the gains and adding 2.64%. Copper advanced 1.83%, zinc increased 0.98%, tin climbed 0.7%, while aluminium shed 0.53% and lead slipped 0.8%. US stock futures traded lower on Sunday night as investors weighed the latest news on the coronavirus front along with another decline in crude prices. Crude oil futures fell on Sunday evening, extending last week's weakness on the back of falling demand amid the COVID-19 pandemic that has claimed more than 159,000 lives worldwide. Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium lost gains from the Asian trading hours as investors loaded up shorts on fundamental weakness. It slipped from an intraday high of $1,534/mt, closing at $1,505/mt, down 0.53% on the day. Trading range today is seen at $1,490-1,540/mt, with the most-liquid SHFE contract trading at 12,300-12,480 yuan/mt. Continued declines in domestic aluminium inventories amid demand resumption will support SHFE aluminium. Zinc: Three-month LME zinc broke up pressure from the 40-day moving average in a broad rally of base metals. It lost steam after hitting a session high of $1,962.5/mt, trimming some gains and ended at $1,951/mt, up 0.98% on the day. LME zinc inventories shrank 850 mt on Friday to 98300 mt, still at high levels. The gradual recovery of overseas automakers will lift zinc consumption, but demand may not rise significantly as end-users have not shown signs of returning. The upsides of LME zinc will be limited, with trading range expected at $1,910-1,960/mt today. The most-active SHFE contract is seen trading at 15,700-16,200 yuan/mt today. Nickel: Three-month LME nickel extended its upward trend, testing pressure from $12,050/mt and finished 2.64% higher on the day at $12,070/mt. It broke resistance from the 40-day moving average, which lent some support to LME nickel. Today, LME nickel is expected to hover between the five- and 40- day moving averages with pressure from $12,250/mt. Lead: Three-month LME lead came off after rose to an intraday high of $1,708/mt, closing the day 0.8% lower at $1677/mt, with the 20-day moving average lending some support. There remain further downside risks in the short term. Tin: Three-month LME tin consolidated at high levels, climbing to a session high of $15,400/mt and ending 0.7% higher on the day at $15,175/mt. LME tin inventories shrank 85 mt on Friday to 6,590 mt. Today, support is seen from $15,000/mt, with pressure above from $15,700/mt.    

SHANGHAI, Mar 10 (SMM) - Dr. Yanchen Wang, managing director of SMM Global UK and a veteran analyst of global commodity market, was recently invited to comment on the latest volatilities and changes concerning the base metals including nickel and aluminium relating to the Russia-Ukraine tensions in a CGTN news program on the evening of March 9.   As for the “crazy” market dislocation for nickel, Dr. Wang suggested that the robust global economic recovery in the post-pandemic era is among the major causes, evidenced by the continuously falling LME inventory from over 250,000 mt in March 2021 to the less than 75,000 mt now. And the market has been extremely worried about supply issues on the back of Russia-Ukraine conflicts as Russia is an important supplier of primary nickel. A short squeeze further aggravated the market situation, which is the main reason for the skyrocketing nickel prices. Dr. Wang believed that nickel prices will return to normal after resuming market, when LME announced to suspend the trade of nickel contracts earlier, allowing long and short investors to negotiate over the current situation. In addition, surging prices of nickel, an important raw material, may suppress the development EV batteries, as high battery prices will inevitably lift the prices of electric vehicles, damaging the de-carbonisation process in EU and around the globe. The on-going sanctions on Russia are expected to result in a rise of aluminium prices as the prices did surge back in 2018 when the Rusal, the world’s second largest aluminium producer, was sanctioned. In this case, the global trade flow will change and rebalance, subsequently affect global aluminium demand. Russia, in response to Western sanctions, is considering to ban the exports of certain commodities as well, though no specific details about targeted counties or commodity have been mentioned. But it is almost certain that the market prices will keep rising as the market is already in a deficit in terms of various metals.

SHANGHAI, Oct 15 (SMM) – Shanghai base metals were mixed on Friday morning amid tight global energy supply. Meanwhile, their counterparts on LME performed similarly. LME metals mostly closed higher in the intraday or overnight trading on Thursday. Copper rose 2.9%, lead advanced 2.93%, zinc gained 3.17%, and aluminium increased 2.75%. SHEF metals performed similarly on Thursday night. Copper won 2.6%, lead fell 0.36%, zinc rose 2.93%, and aluminium increased 0.9%. Copper: Three-month LME copper rose 2.9% to end at $10,000/mt last night, after hitting a record high of $10,024/mt. The most-traded SHFE 2111 copper contract increased 2.6% to end at 73,680 yuan/mt in overnight trading. The increase in CPI in the United States in September exceeded expectations, resuming the previous upward trend and highlighting the continued high inflation. The commodity prices increased amid the intensifying global energy crisis. Domestic social inventories have always been at a low level. The proportion of overseas cancelled warrants rose to 74.95% yesterday, with strong bullish sentiment. The trades thinned yesterday due to the Backwardation, SHFE copper prices are expected to move between 73,200-73,800 yuan/mt today, and LME copper will trade between $9,920-10,010/mt. Aluminium: Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2111 aluminium contract opened at 23,880 yuan/mt, with the highest and lowest prices at 24,000 yuan/mt and 23,535 yuan/mt before closing at 23,670 yuan/mt, up 210 yuan/mt or 0.9%. Three-month LME aluminium opened at $3,055/mt on Thursday morning and ranged between $3,028-3,174/mt before closing at $3,139/mt, up $84/mt or 2.75%. The global energy supply is tight, and overseas power costs are high, keeping LME aluminium at a high level. The domestic downstream consumption weakened and inventories continued to accumulate, causing SHFE aluminium to underperform LME aluminium. It is expected that the SHFE 2111 aluminium contract will move between 23,400-23,800 yuan/mt today, and LME aluminium between $3,100-3,500/mt. Lead: Three-month LME lead rose 2.93% to end at $2,299.5/mt in the overnight trading. The most-traded SHFE 2111 lead contract fell 0.36% to end at 15,340 yuan/mt in overnight trading. Social inventory is likely to increase slightly this week, but the increment will be limited amid the maintenance of delivery brands and power rationing. The support of 15,250 yuan/mt on the lower side remains as the market focus. Zinc: Three-month LME zinc gained 3.17% to settle at $3,529.5/mt last night, with open interest increasing 2014 lots to 274,000 lots. Zinc stocks across LME-listed warehouses dropped by 1,475 mt or 0.77% to 189,600 mt. LME zinc prices are expected to move between $3,470-3,520/mt. The most-traded SHFE 2111 zinc contract rose 730 yuan/mt or 2.93% to 256,35 yuan/mt, with open interest increasing 7,634 lots to 213,000 lots. The global energy crisis continues to ferment, and the cost of overseas electricity has risen sharply, putting tremendous cost pressure on energy-consuming smelters. On the supply side, domestic and overseas smelters have reduced production due to power problems, triggering market concerns that more smelters will be affected in the future. In terms of demand, zinc prices rose 3,000 yuan/mt after the holiday. Rising zinc prices suppressed the downstream procurement. The SHFE 2111 contract is expected to move between 25,300-25,800 yuan/mt today and spot premiums for domestic #0 Shuangyan will be seen at 40-50 yuan/mt against the November contract. Nickel: Nickel prices rose from low levels yesterday. The transactions were active on the morning market, but weakened as the prices rebounded. The premiums of Russian nickel stood at 900-1,100 yuan/mt over the November contract, and the spot premiums of Jinchuan nickel fluctuated at 1,500-1,700 yuan/mt. Premiums of mainstream nickel briquette stood at 400-600 yuan/mt over the November contract, and continued to trend lower. The most-traded SHFE 2111 nickel contract gained 1.36% to close at 145,610 yuan/mt. The output at Nyrstar's zinc smelters has been reduced intraday, driving market sentiment to be bullish on zinc prices. SHFE zinc saw limit up. The non-ferrous metals followed the suit, especially nickel. Nickel sulphate prices fell to the breakeven point at some plants. There is new production line commissioning and its demand for nickel has been rising in the recent two months. Stainless steel’s demand for nickel fell slightly amid the power rationing. The two downstream sectors of nickel--stainless steel and new energy got rid of divergence, which is likely to push nickel prices to fluctuate strongly. Tin: SHFE tin rose before falling overnight and hovered around 280,000 yuan/mt. The spot market is tight, but there are expectations that supply will grow. There is uncertainty over the impact of power rationing on downstream demand. The recent high prices are supported by tight spot supply. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to meet resistance at 284,000 yuan/mt and find support at 276,000 yuan/mt on Friday amid wait-and-see sentiment among longs and shorts.

SHANGHAI, Oct 12 (SMM) – Shanghai base metals basically trended higher on Tuesday morning amid extended power rationing. Meanwhile, their counterparts on LME mostly fell. LME metals basically closed higher in the intraday or overnight trading on Monday. Copper rose 1.94%, aluminium gained 1.79%, zinc won 1.69%, and lead fell 0.4%. SHFE metals performed similarly last night. Copper gained 1.07%, aluminium rose 2.21%, zinc won 1.88%, and lead dropped 0.64%. Copper: Three-month LME copper rose 1.94% last night to close at $9,531/mt after hitting the highest point at $9,570/mt, and is expected to trade between $9,400-9,500/mt today. The trading volume was 20,000 lots, and the open interest reached 260,000 lots. The SHFE 2111 copper contract inched gained 1.07% to close at 71,010 yuan/mt in the overnight trading after hitting $71,140 yuan/mt, and is expected to trade between 70,000-70,600 yuan/mt today, with spot premiums at 220-310 yuan/mt. The trading volume was 58,000 lots, and the open interest reached 144,000 lots last night. As the energy crisis intensified, global coal and natural gas inventories stood low, and their prices soared, boosting the demand for crude oil. US oil rose on Monday and closed above $80 for the first time in 7 years. In the spot market, the transaction was light. Traders did not intend to enter the market due to the high prices despite the wide Backwardation structure. A large amount of imported copper may arrive at the ports recently, and the high premiums may fall back. Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium opened at $2,958.5/mt yesterday and closed at $3,042/mt, up 2.79%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2111 aluminium contract opened at 23,300 yuan/mt and moved between 23,220-23,685 yuan/mt before closing at 23,545 yuan/mt, up 510 yuan/mt, or 2.21%. SMM data showed that the social inventory of aluminium ingots rose further to 864,000 mt on October 11. Aluminium plants are still affected by power rationing and their costs continue to rise. As such, aluminium prices still have strong upward momentum. It is expected that the most-traded SHFE 2111 aluminium contract will move between 23,500-34,000 yuan/mt today, and LME aluminium between $2,980-3,050/mt. Lead: Three-month LME lead opened at $2,224.5/mt last night, and fluctuated lower to $2,216/mt, before rebounding to hit the highest point at $2,249/mt. LME lead closed at $2,216/mt last night, down 0.4%. The market was waiting for the official announcement of US tapering the bond purchase in November, and the high US dollar index weighed on the base metal prices. Today’s focus will be whether the price will risk the support at $2,200/mt, and whether shorts will continue to add positions. The most-active SHFE 2111 lead contract opened at 14,805 yuan/mt last night, hitting the highest point at 14,980 yuan/mt, and closed at 14,900 yuan/mt, down 0.64%. Shorts continued to reduce positions for risk aversion, and SHFE lead was testing 15,000 yuan/mt. The power rationing is easing after the National Day holiday. Today’s focus will be the pressure at 15,000 yuan/mt. Zinc: LME zinc opened at $3,161/mt yesterday and fell to $3,126/mt before rebounding to $3,240/mt. LME zinc closed at $3,222/mt, up $53.5/mt or 1.69%. Trading volume was 15,000 lots, and open interest increased by 2,532 lots to 267,000 lots. LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,500 mt to 193,850 mt, a decrease of 1.77%. The market needs to pay attention to the operation of overseas smelters amid rising energy prices and shortages. LME zinc is expected to move at highs of $3,180-3,230/mt today. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2111 zinc contract opened at 23,450 yuan/mt and hit this year’s high at 23,880 yuan/mt before closing at 23,630 yuan/mt, up 435 yuan/mt or 1.88%. Trading volume rose to 239,000 lots, and open interest increased by 22,522 lots to 196,000 lots. Since September, the prices of natural gas and thermal coal in Europe and the United States have soared to record highs. The global energy crisis has intensified. Previously, a smelter in the Netherlands chose to reduce production due to the sharp rise in electricity prices, causing market concerns that more smelters overseas may follow suit. Meanwhile, Chinese zinc smelters are affected by power rationing, resulting in a decline in domestic output, which has also boosted bullish sentiment. SHFE zinc is expected to move at highs of 23,300-23,800 yuan/mt today amid market optimism. 0# domestic Shuangyan zinc will trade at premiums of 70-90 yuan/mt over the SHFE 2110 zinc contract. Tin: Overnight, SHFE tin pulled back and closed at above 280,000 yuan/mt, with open interest down more than 2,000 lots. The market supply is still tight. The output of tin ingots in September is estimated to fall 5% MoM, but the output in October is expected to increase by 11% MoM. The slight decrease in output in September led to tight market supply before and after the National Day. However, as output in October may grow, it is worth close attention whether downstream demand can match the higher output in the future. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to meet resistance at 286,000 yuan/mt and find support at 280,000 yuan/mt today.

SHANGHAI, Sep 27 (SMM) - Shanghai nonferrous metals closed with mixed performance as the intensifying power rationing has been impacting both the upstream and downstream sectors. Shanghai copper gained 0.57%, aluminium fell 2.01%, lead was flat, zinc advanced 0.57%, tin plummeted 3.66%, and nickel slid 2.05%. Copper: The most-traded SHFE 2111 copper closed up 0.57% or 390 yuan/mt to 69270 yuan/mt, with open interest up 9694 lots to 114100 lots. On the macro front, US new housing sales in August rose 1.5% on the month, the highest in four months. The consumers’ long-run inflation expectations were still firmly contained according to the New York Federal Reserve. As such, the macro sentiment is relatively stable. On the fundamentals, domestic social inventory in mainstream markets fell 113,000 mt on the week to 92,200 mt, a new record low in the year, according to SMM, which offered some support to copper prices. Meanwhile, some smelters have been influenced by the power rationing. Therefore, the market shall closely watch the impact of power rationing on supply and demand as well pre-National Day holiday restocking. Tonight, the market shall keep an eye on the initial reading of the growth rate of US durable goods orders in August (estimated at 0.6% and finalised at -0.1% in the previous session). More new orders usually signal more manufacturing activities, which will benefit the US dollar index and pressure SHFE copper. Aluminium: The most-traded SHFE 2111 aluminium closed down 2.01% or 465 yuan/mt to 22725 yuan/mt, with open interest down 10650 lots to 282315 lots. The market supply of aluminium continued to fall in light of the intensifying energy consumption control policies, supporting aluminium prices. However, the social inventories of aluminium billet and aluminium have been on the rise, mainly caused by sluggish downstream demand amid surging prices and power rationing. Lead: The most-traded SHFE 2110 lead closed flat at 14495 yuan/mt, with open interest down 17322 lots to 38271 lots. The actual impact of power rationing on secondary lead was limited, but it somehow slowed down the increase in the inventory, especially in a time when the secondary lead quotes surged and once surpassed that of primary lead. The downstream sector actively restocked ahead of the National Day holiday, and the spot trades were modest. For primary lead, mainstream quotes were offered with premiums at 120 – 150 yuan/mt, and traders quoted with discounts at 40 – 0 yuan/mt over SHFE 2110 contract. According to SMM, the lead ingots inventory in the five major markets in China was flat from Friday September 24, and stood at 215,900 mt. The total inventory is expected to fall amid production reduction and pre-holiday restocking. Zinc: The most-traded SHFE 2111 zinc closed up 0.57% or 130 yuan/mt at 23020 yuan/mt, with open interest up 21346 lots to 113591 lots. The supply side has experienced great disruptions, especially in Yunan and Hunan where the power rationing has been intensive. Currently speaking, the impact of power rationing on the demand side has been limited, but the overall mid and downstream demand was still sluggish amid the high season. The operating rates of galvanising companies fell due to operating losses; while the production of die-casting zinc alloy plants was also subdued. Tin: The most-traded SHFE 2110 tin closed down 3.66% at 270340 yuan/mt, with open interest down 5400 lots. The daily chart trended down as long capitals chose to close the positions. On the fundamentals, the market saw more quotes from various brands and traders. And the recent massive power rationing is likely to impact the downstream demand in the short term. Technically speaking, the intraday plummet in futures prices could be seen as the result of the market’s fear over the surging prices in the past few trading days before the most-traded contract was shifted to SHFE 2111 tin. Nickel: The most-traded SHFE 2110 nickel closed down 2.05% or 2980 yuan/mt to 142470 yuan/mt, with open interest down 11917 lots to 43076 lots. The Fed indicated that the tapering of debt purchase will probably finish by mid-2022, and the interest hike may come earlier than expected, signalling hawkish stance. In China, the nickel ore inventory rose at a lower pace, thus the tight supply pattern remains. The demand from the downstream steel mills was sluggish amid frequent maintenance. While the new energy sector maintained its fast development, creating more demand for nickel briquette. The prices of nickel fell recently, prompting the downstream sector to purchase on the dip. Meanwhile, the inventory in China and overseas market has been falling, underpinning nickel prices.