SHANGHAI, Nov 25 (SMM) –
Copper: Three-month LME copper gained 0.59% on Friday to $5,852.5/mt, while the most active SHFE 2001 contract advanced 0.43% on Friday night to end at a session-high of 47,100 yuan/mt. Copper trading on Shanghai and London markets both saw low volatility, as conflicting signals on US-China trade talks kept investors on the sidelines. A stronger US dollar, bolstered by low expectations of further interest rate cuts after US manufacturing activity and consumer confidence data came in better than expected, will weigh on copper prices today. SHFE copper is likely to reverse some gains and trade between 46,900-47,200 yuan/mt, as pressure lies at the 20-day moving average and the middle Bollinger band. LME copper is expected to move between $5,810-5,870/mt. In the physical market, spot copper premiums are seen at 50-90 yuan/mt with thin trades, probably muted by higher prices of futures and tight availability amid limited inflows of seaborne materials.
Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium slipped to an intraday low of $1,735.5/mt on Friday, before it clawed back some losses to end down 0.2% at $1,740/mt. LME aluminium today is expected to come under pressure from the firmer greenback, and move between $1,730-1,745/mt. The most traded SHFE 2001 contract rose to a two-week high of 13,880 yuan/mt on Friday night, before it weakened to close 0.11% higher at 13,855 yuan/mt. Limited downside is expected in SHFE aluminium as falling inventories keep shorts cautious. The contract is expected to trade between 13,800-13,870 yuan/mt today, with spot premiums of 70-110 yuan/mt over the SHFE 1912 contract.
Zinc: Shorts pulled three-month LME zinc to a new low of $2,283/mt, the lowest since October 9, on Friday as data showed that LME zinc inventories continued to grow. LME zinc later recovered some ground to close 0.17% weaker at $2,307/mt, registering an eighth decline in the past nine days. It is likely to remain weak and move between $2,280-2,330/mt today, and support at the lower Bollinger band will come under scrutiny. The most active SHFE 2001 contract tracked losses in LME zinc to a low of 17,885 yuan/mt in early trade Friday night, before it recouped some losses to end down 0.14% at 18,035 yuan/mt. SMM data showed that social inventories of refined zinc in Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin dropped 5,800 mt last week, which will offer support to SHFE zinc prices. The contract is expected to consolidate between 17,900-18,300 yuan/mt today, and support at the lower Bollinger band should be closely monitored. Spot premiums for domestic 0# Shuangyan are seen at 130-150 yuan/mt over the SHFE 1912 contract.
Nickel: Three-month LME nickel recovered from earlier losses to end 0.93% higher at $14,640/mt on Friday. Whether it could remain above the five-day moving average will come under scrutiny today. The most traded SHFE 2002 contract climbed to a session–high of 115,460 yuan/mt on short-covering on Friday night, before it closed up 0.59% at 114,810 yuan/mt. SHFE nickel has returned above the lower Bollinger band, and whether it could shrug off resistance at 115,000 yuan/mt should be closely watched today.
Lead: Three-month LME lead climbed to an intraday high of $1,987/mt on Friday, before it erased some gains to close the trading day 0.26% firmer at $1,965.5/mt. LME lead moved sideways around three-month lows, as investors grappled for a direction. Support at $1,950/mt should be closely watched. The most active SHFE 2001 contract jumped to a session-high of 15,615 yuan/mt in early trade Friday night, before it eased to close 0.39% higher at 15,575 yuan/mt, tracking the pull-back in its LME counterpart. SHFE lead is likely to stem its declines and stabilise in the near term, in view of improved fundamentals and lower output from marginal capacity.
Tin: Three-month LME tin edged down to $16,350/mt on Friday, shedding earlier gains due to strong resistance at the middle Bollinger band. Support is seen at the 10-day moving average at $16,200/mt. The most traded SHFE 2001 contract advanced 0.5% to close at a session-high of 139,200 yuan/mt on Friday night, as shorts trimmed their positions. SHFE tin now stands above all near-term moving averages, and resistance lies at 139,500 yuan/mt.