SHANGHAI, Dec 10 (SMM) –
Copper: Copper prices continued their strong run overnight, as market euphoria over the upbeat US employment report has yet to fade and as the British pound strengthened on optimism that Thursday’s election will end near-term Brexit uncertainty. Three-month LME copper advanced 0.94% on the trading day to end at $6,081.5/mt, and the most active SHFE 2002 contract climbed 1.44% to end at a session-high of 48,720 yuan/mt overnight. Further upside potential in copper prices, however, will be hampered by worries about the US-China trade talks with a December 15 deadline looming for the next wave of US tariffs on Chinese goods to kick in. There was still cautious sentiment across the markets, as gold prices held around $1,465/oz and US stocks fell for the first time in four sessions on Monday. LME copper is expected to move between $6,050-6,100/mt today, with SHFE copper at 48,400-48,900 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen lower at 70-120 yuan/mt as prices of futures have increased.
Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium rebounded to an intraday high of $1,773.5/mt on Monday, before it erased those gains to close 0.11% weaker at $1,760.5/mt. The buildup of short positions primarily accounted for the losses. LME aluminium is expected to remain rangebound between $1,740-1,800/mt today. The most traded SHFE 2002 contract advanced 0.25% to 13,880 yuan/mt overnight, as longs added their positions. Bullish investors were moving to later-dated contracts. SHFE aluminium is expected to waver between 13,810-14,000 yuan/mt today. Spot premiums are seen at 30-50 yuan/mt over the SHFE 1912 contract.
Zinc: Three-month LME zinc oscillated between gains and losses on Monday, subdued by the 10-day moving average but supported by the five-day one and the lower Bollinger band, and finished the trading day marginally lower at $2,238/mt. Zinc stocks across LME warehouses declined 0.89% on the day. LME zinc is expected to continue the rangebound pattern in the short term, as investors weigh hopes for a preliminary US-China trade deal against weak Chinese exports data. The contract is likely to move between $2,210-2,260/mt today. The most active SHFE 2002 contract opened lower and fluctuated to close 0.2% lower at 17,860 yuan/mt overnight. SMM data showed that social inventories of refined zinc in China declined 3,600 mt over the weekend to 126,300 mt. A weakening in recent orders for zinc alloy die-castings and temporary production restrictions on galvanising plants in Tianjin, however, will slow demand for zinc and limit upside in zinc prices. The SHFE 2002 contract is expected to trade between 17,700-18,100 yuan/mt today, and spot premiums for domestic 0# Shuangyan are seen lower at 200-250 yuan/mt over the SHFE 1912 contract.
Nickel: Three-month LME nickel fell to an intraday low of $13,170/mt on Monday, before it recovered some ground to close down 1.26% at $13,320/mt. Whether LME nickel could remain above the five-day moving average will come under scrutiny today. The most traded SHFE 2002 contract recovered from initial losses to end 0.34% lower at 106,240 yuan/mt overnight. Resistance at the 10-day moving average will be closely monitored today.
Lead: Three-month LME lead slipped to its lowest since July 5 at $1,865.5/mt on Monday, before it rallied to end 0.42% firmer at $1,897/mt. LME lead continued to weaken, in the absence of buying momentum. The most active SHFE 2001 contract held in a tight range around 15,105 yuan/mt overnight and closed a tad lower at 15,095 yuan/mt. There appeared to be signs of a pause to SHFE lead’s recent downtrend. Price spreads between primary and secondary lead should be closely watched.
Tin: Three-month LME tin extended its gains on Monday, rising 0.32% to end at $17,100/mt. Resistance lies at a previous high of $17,200/mt. As longs aggressively loaded up positions, the most traded SHFE 2001 contract rapidly climbed to 141,170 yuan/mt, its highest since October 18, in early trade overnight. It later consolidated to end 0.65% stronger at 140,890 yuan/mt. Resistance is seen at 142,000 yuan/mt.